A clean buy / hold / trim framework for broad markets, sectors, and individual stocks. The model rewards improving conditions, punishes credit/earnings deterioration, and avoids blindly buying every dip.
Broad marketSector ETFsSingle stocksT-bill postureLocal save
Major Indices
Little charts • auto if Worker is deployed, fallback if not
Score: 0 / 100
HOLD
Confidence: Medium
1. Choose the asset type
The core macro rules stay the same. Extra inputs appear for sectors or single stocks.
Examples: S&P 500, QQQ, energy ETF, bank stock, AI leader.
Used only for history labels.
2. Output
This is the decision output. Use tranche sizing instead of all-in/all-out moves.
Equity action
Hold
T-bill action
Balanced ladder
Tranche size
0%
Risk state
Neutral
3. Core market levers
These are the durable signals I would prioritize for general investing triggers. Use the small reference links on each label to check inputs quickly.
Trend prevents fighting broad momentum.
Down is good only if damage is stabilizing.
Falling from lower inflation is bullish; falling from credit panic is not.
Energy and inflation shocks pressure multiples and consumers.
This is the master override. Bad credit blocks dip-buying.
Prices follow earnings over time.
Healthy rallies broaden; fragile rallies narrow.
Best buys often happen when fear peaks, not when it is still accelerating.
4. Sector-specific checks
Use these for sector ETFs or industry groups.
4. Stock-specific checks
Use these for individual stock decisions. This adds quality and idiosyncratic risk.
5. Notes and decision log
Save snapshots as you evaluate setups. Data stays in your browser.
Decision logic
Buy
Market opportunity plus improving macro, stable credit, and supportive earnings.
Hold
Mixed conditions. Do nothing unless your pre-set price target hits.
Trim/Sell
Market strength while macro, credit, earnings, or valuation are deteriorating.
Hard rule: If credit/liquidity is worsening, the model blocks aggressive buying even if prices are down and rates are falling.